Several Momentum Indicators Oversold, Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance Up

The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year.  Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly.  Will the current selloff evolve the same way?  Too early to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record.  They have since reduced … Continued

Federal Deficit Continues To Worsen; Repercussions – Or Lack Thereof – For 10-Year Notes

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

On a 12-month rolling total basis, federal deficit in August shot up to just under $900 billion.  This at a time when the US economy is in expansion.  In all probability, the red ink only gets worse from here.  The … Continued

After Tumultuous 2 Weeks, Equities Oversold – Good Idea To Cover Short

What a week!  Stocks really took it on the chin last week, but by Friday there was some semblance of stability.  Several indicators are in deep oversold territory.  At least a reflex rally is due. During the carnage over the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 622.4k, down 117.8k. Back in July 2016, the 10-year Treasury rate (3.14 percent) bottomed at 1.34 percent.  Since then, it has made higher lows.  … Continued

Bulls Defend Crucial Support Last Week, But On Back Foot

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

US stocks took it on the chin last week.  Large-caps held up better, but risk aversion was seen elsewhere.  The Dow Industrials was essentially unchanged, and the S&P 500 large cap index lost one percent.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.2k, down 16.1k. Kudos to non-commercials for having doggedly remained bearish on 10-year Treasury notes.  They reaped a bumper crop this week.  In September … Continued