Last Thursday’s sizable drop in major US equity indices was sudden. Several metrics were so deep into overbought territory the decline probably did not come as a surprise to many. The magnitude of it was. Indices have rallied in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 9, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.3k, up 55.2k. Post-conclusion of FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday sought to play down May’s much-better-than-expected jobs report, which showed the economy … Continued
Major US equity indices continue their two-and-a-half-month momentum. Short squeeze helped. As did the Fed backstop. On an FOMC day, Chair Powell’s body language is worth a listen. For equity bulls, there is this thing called the law of gravity. … Continued
Stocks are ripping higher. Sentiment is exuberant. Several technical indicators are extended. The Fed’s aggressive action was a catalyst in March when major US equity indices bottomed. Its asset holdings continue to grow, but the pace of growth has decelerated. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 2, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 52.9k, up 14.9k. This week, the ECB surprised markets with its new bond purchase program (more below). The FOMC meets next week. But no … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 38.1k, down 55.1k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.65 percent) has essentially gone sideways for nearly three months now. This was at a time when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 93.1k, down 58.4k. This data is a little outdated, but foreigners were big sellers of Treasury securities in March. On a net basis, they … Continued
Last week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 respectively fell 2.3 percent, 0.7 percent and 5.5 percent. Bulls’ consolation is that the indices were down a lot more at Thursday’s lows and that they were able to defend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 151.5k, up 9.2k. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, provided a gloomy view of the economy, saying the nation was experiencing an economic hit … Continued
Stocks have diverged from sharp deterioration in fundamentals. At the lows, several indicators were at washout levels, resulting in the massive rally that followed. But at this point in time, they may be responding more to the Fed’s monetary backstop … Continued