Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th. This was followed by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
US small-caps are outperforming. Price action is great. But large-caps are not on the same page. And high-yield corporate bonds have diverged with small-caps for a while now. In early 2016 when US stocks reached a major low, several other … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued
The US dollar index has rallied strongly in the past five weeks. This can potentially have consequences for US inflation, exports, economy, earnings and what not. But was the rise enough for FOMC members to discuss in the March meeting? … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion. The recovery has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
There are some interesting dynamics in play in the small-cap sector – encompassing both fundamentals and technicals. Post-tax cuts of last December, earnings estimates were sharply revised higher. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was signed into law … Continued
Intraday over seven sessions, SPY rallied 5.4 percent. If not an outright reversal, at least a breather is the path of least resistance near term, creating opportunity to earn premium in options. The 1Q18 earnings season is nearly over. As … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 8, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 408.6k, down 37k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.97 percent) once again is hammering on three percent. On April 25, yields retreated after rising intraday … Continued