US corporate bond issuance is on course for a sharp snapback from last year’s seven-year low. Treasury issuance continues rapid growth trajectory, as it needs to keep up with growing deficit spending. Despite what we hear and read, there is … Continued
US stocks rallied strongly last week. Bulls enjoy momentum right now. That said, risk-on is not full-on. What transpires at 2890s on the S&P 500 can be a tell near term. May’s employment report was mixed at best and disappointing … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 467.7k, up 91.5k. Friday’s intraday low of 2.05 percent came pretty close to testing the September 2017 low of 2.03 percent. A breach of … Continued
Markets are aggressively beginning to price in at least two cuts in fed funds this year. It is a little too early, but the Fed is beginning to come around to this dovish scenario. It is easy to get convinced … Continued
From trade disputes to declining corporate profits to yield-curve inversion, there is no shortage of issues for worrywarts to worry about. From recent highs, major US equity indices have dropped in the mid- to high-single digits. Medium term, more downside … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.2k, down 47.2k. Where is the bottom? The 10-year Treasury yield (2.14 percent) last Thursday sliced through support at 2.36 percent. This week, it … Continued
Appreciation in US home prices – or a lack thereof – tends to impact consumer psyche. Currently, prices are not that far away from record levels, but the rate of growth is in deceleration. If the trend persists, this has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued
Bond bears put their foot down near 2.4 percent on the 10-year T-yield. In the best of circumstances, they are eyeing a test of broken support at 2.62 percent – if not, definitely 2.50 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.43 … Continued
There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities. Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week. Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult. Overbought … Continued