Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 194.4k, down 104.1k. Equities up. Gold up. The US dollar index down. Ten-year Treasury yields down. This is how markets reacted to Wednesday’s FOMC … Continued
The US dollar index (cash) acts confused. Later today, it is all but certain that the Fed announces a hike in the fed funds rate. This would be the third increase since December 2015, when for the first time since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect. Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued
Eight years old! The bull market in U.S. equities, that is. After a harrowing 57-percent collapse that began in October 2007, the S&P 500 large cap index bottomed at an intraday low of 666.79 on March 6, 2009. Tuesday, it … Continued
Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February. The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 28, 2017. 10-year note: By Friday last week, fed funds futures were putting the odds of a rate hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 14-15) at 34 percent. By Monday, … Continued
Tuesday was J.P. Morgan’s (JPM) annual investor day. Bloomberg pointed out that CFO Marianne Lake talked about loans depleting a little bit – the growth rate, that is. Core loans were up 15 percent last year. She sees 10 percent … Continued
The Dow Industrials is on pace to creating history this week. Last Friday, it rose for 11 sessions in a row, for a cumulative gain of 3.8 percent. The longest streak was recorded in January 1987 when it rallied 11 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 21, 2017. 10-year note: Are we in for a March shock? Post-FOMC minutes on Wednesday, fed funds futures were pricing in a 32-percent chance of a rate hike in the March … Continued
Say what you want, equity bulls deserve kudos! There is an unprecedented bid under the market particularly since the election (November 8) last year. The S&P 500 large cap index has nearly rallied 11 percent since! The rubber band keeps … Continued