The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
Hindsight is always 20/20. The post last Monday hypothetically discussed three ways to play beaten-down GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF: (1) go long at $103.09; (2) short November 27th 102.50 puts for $0.49, which could result in effectively going long … Continued
Growth in U.S. corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments dipped into the negative territory in 3Q15 – both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion, they compared with $2.08 trillion in 2Q15 … Continued
Directionally, ITB, the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF, and U.S. homebuilder sentiment tend to move together. The correlation coefficient is far from perfect, but at 0.68 between May 2006 and November 2015, it is decent (Chart 1). The National … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hawks are in, doves are out. At least that is how markets are beginning to bet on the odds of an interest-rate hike … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 10, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday.) 10-year note: “Muted global economic growth will not support a … Continued
Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve vice chair, last week stated that U.S. inflation should rebound next year. As things stand now, government data do not show much inflation. In September, consumer prices, measured by the consumer price index, were unchanged in … Continued
If there was any doubt that short interest played a key role in the rally since September 29th, the latest short interest data should settle it. That said, since short interest remains elevated, the debate is still open as to … Continued
One of the knocks on the rally that began on September 29th is that it is primarily led by large-caps. From that low through most recent highs, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied 13.1 percent, and the Nasdaq 100 … Continued
The price to sales ratio is an important valuation tool that many investors swear by. The market cap to GDP ratio – essentially a ratio of price to sales – supposedly is a favorite indicator of Warren Buffet. On this … Continued