Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.8k, down 214.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s third, and five more remain after this. In the March meeting, … Continued
The Nasdaq Composite is down 23 percent from its record high last November. Shorts have done exceedingly well, as short interest rose to a fresh high mid-April. Both the Composite, and the Nasdaq 100, closed Tuesday at a crucial level. … Continued
An oversold reflex rally is due in major US indices. This week, major tech outfits report their March quarter. This could act as a catalyst. If post-earnings reaction instead acts as a headwind, the FOMC meets on May 3-4. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 332.3k, up 32.4k. A 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate is pretty much sealed in the May 3-4 meeting. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve … Continued
Up 1.5 percent in the first three sessions this week, the S&P 500 probably has more gains in store in the sessions ahead. A crucial dual resistance is two percent away. Last week, for the first time in four weeks, … Continued
Two important data points came out last week and both are acting as headwinds. Margin debt and foreigners’ buying behavior are likely to continue to maintain the current trajectory medium- to long-term. Near-term, technical indicators are oversold, with the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 299.9k, down 62.9k. That the 10-year treasury yield has gone parabolic in recent weeks is no exaggeration. As recently as March 1, rates tagged … Continued
The 1Q earnings season begins in earnest this week, with a host of financials getting the ball rolling. For large-caps, this year’s revision trend is flat to slightly up, but next year’s is decidedly up, which is kind of interesting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 5, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.9k, down 113.7k. Minutes for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting, out Wednesday, revealed that the Federal Reserve plans to shrink its balance sheet by … Continued
In 1Q22, US corporate bond issuance was down 14.5% y/y, with high-yield collapsing 68%. This took place even as HYG, along with LQD – already under sustained pressure – are clinging on to crucial support. In the first three months … Continued