CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 49.4k, up 15.3k. In the week ended February 11th, non-commercials held 398,919 net shorts in 10-year note futures.  On the 12th that month, the … Continued

Fundamental Issues Aside, Russel 2000 Breaks Out – As Long As Price Stays Above 1250s, Bulls Deserve Benefit Of Doubt

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

On Monday, the Russell 2000 busted through 1250s.  This has been an important price point going back five years.  Despite lofty earnings expectations for both this year and next, this week’s action is a thumbs-up from markets.  As long as … Continued

As Top Five Get Ready To Report This Week, Cap-Weighted Indices At Crucial Juncture

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The top five stocks report this week.  They have rallied massively since March lows.  Investor reaction to their earnings will determine if major cap-weighted indices continue their five-week upward momentum or hit the wall. This week, the big five report.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 34.1k, down 36.7k. The FOMC meets next week.  A two-day meeting begins Tuesday.  This comes after March’s hectic schedule which included two unscheduled meetings.  … Continued

SMH Sits At Crucial Juncture – INTC Results With Nearly 11% Weight Can Decide Fate

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Intel (INTC) reports later today.  This is coming at a crucial time as far as where SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) is situated. Texas Instruments’ (TXN) results were received favorably Wednesday, with the stock up 4.8 percent.  It accounts for … Continued

After Big 1-Month Rally, S&P 500 And Nasdaq Lose Rising Trend Line From Mar 23rd Low

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major equity indices hit the wall this week, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq losing a rising trend line from the March 23rd low.  They rallied massively off of that low, and odds favor continued unwinding of daily … Continued

Bulls Hiding In Large-Caps And In Just A Few Names Within Large-Caps – Conviction Lacking

Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps.  If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 70.8k, up 9.8k. The Fed is on a mission to provide a backstop to a whole host of assets.  Here is its report card … Continued