Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 393.8k, up 100.6k. Next week – on 18-19 – the FOMC meets. This is the last meeting this year. A 25-basis-point raise is expected, … Continued
Bulls and bears continue to show up at 2600 and 2800 respectively. The S&P 500 just tested support – successfully. Odds favor a rally here. There is dry powder in money-market funds, even as fear reflected in the options market … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the November 16-30 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (51.88) fell out of multi-month horizontal support at 55-56 during October’s selling. Shorts are … Continued
The S&P 500 hurriedly jumped 6.4 percent in seven sessions. Impatient bulls essentially handed out shorts an opportunity to once again show up at 2800. The risk is the downside, but it is likely 2800-2600 remains intact in the next … Continued
Post-Powell’s supposed dovish switch last week, equity bulls spent lots of energy to rally the S&P 500 within less than two points of the 200-day. If the trade-tariff truce the US and China reached over the weekend in Argentina is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 284.2k, down 83k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, moved markets on Wednesday. A whole host of asset classes reacted to his Economic Club of New … Continued
In a session the S&P 500 rallied 2.3 percent, VIX held up better on Wednesday. It is probably due to the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks over the weekend in Argentina. Should, come Monday, stocks initially get roiled it is … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the November 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) After a horrendous October, XLB (53.26) bulls defended horizontal support at 50 toward the end … Continued
US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week. Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better. Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued
The S&P 500 sits at/near October lows. How the bull-bear duel resolves in the next few sessions will decide the path of least resistance in this seasonally favorable period. Options and investor sentiment do not reflect panic. If stocks rally … Continued