Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 43.2k, up 12.2k. The 10-year Treasury yield is clinging on to support. It shed four basis points this week to close at 0.63 percent; … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 30, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 31k, up 24.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield cannot break the logjam. Since bottoming on March 9th at 0.40 percent, rates have pretty much been … Continued
Small-caps and large-caps went their own separate ways for a while, with the Russell 2000 peaking as far back as August 2018 and the S&P 500 in February this year. Since the trough this March, they have been on the … Continued
Bulls are not ready to give up just yet. At the end of last week, bears had a decent opening, as subtle technical weakness developed on major US equity indices. Before this could morph into something serious, bulls put their … Continued
Bulls just wasted a huge opportunity to squeeze non-commercial shorts in e-mini futures. This is coming at a time when the Fed’s balance sheet is no longer growing at a breakneck pace, which stocks cherished earlier. Longs probably wasted a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 23, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 6.5k, up 17.4k. The Federal Reserve continued to reduce its assets this week. Since rising to a record $7.17 trillion two weeks ago, the … Continued
Once again, bulls were denied at 1450s on the Russell 2000 (1390). They have had massive gains since the March low, even as earnings estimates continue lower. A test of 1330s is the path of least resistance, followed by 1250s. … Continued
In the last few weeks, money has moved out of money-market funds which ballooned to just under $5 trillion, but not into stocks. Equity bulls are hoping the so-called cash-on-the-sidelines will find a home in stocks. The problem is, major … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 16, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 10.9k, down 13.1k. Foreigners are aggressively getting out of the US sovereign bond market. In March and April, they sold $475.6 billion in Treasury … Continued
After a massive rally in the past three months, the Russell 2000 is tracing out a consolidation pattern. Investor optimism remains very high. For continuation of the uptrend, money-market funds likely hold the key. Barring their cooperation, bulls will have … Continued