Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued
Bond bears put their foot down near 2.4 percent on the 10-year T-yield. In the best of circumstances, they are eyeing a test of broken support at 2.62 percent – if not, definitely 2.50 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.43 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Major US equity indices took a beating last week, but, thanks to Friday’s reversal, they closed substantially off their lows, defending crucial support and the 50-day. Concurrently, VIX suffered a spike reversal. It is equity bulls’ ball to lose near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
The Russell 2000 closed Friday right at, or slightly past, crucial resistance. If bulls succeed in decisively take out this ceiling, risk-on sentiment can rise. Failure to do so can lead longs, who are sitting on handsome gains, to lock … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
Inventory burn likely weighs on growth in future quarters, casting doubt on the sell-side’s expectations for a pick-up in earnings growth momentum as the year progresses. This is a medium- to long-term issue. Near term, recapturing of 1600 on the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.8k, up 48.1k. After getting rejected at 2.61 percent Wednesday last week, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.51 percent) went after that level again this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent. … Continued