The 10-year Treasury yield is at it again, trying to convincingly break out of just north of three percent. Shorts have done very well in the past year. They will mint money should a breakout occur. A lack thereof also … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.7k, down 73. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.99 percent) rose from 2.81 percent on August 22 to Friday’s high of three percent. At least … Continued
Even though trade tensions particularly between the US and China have heated up, small-caps – supposed beneficiaries of a trade war – have stalled of late. Medium term, downside risks are huge. In the very near term, it is a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 4, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.8k, up 152.9k. Bulls and bears went back and forth this week around the 50-day moving average until Friday when the 10-year rate (2.94 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
Small-caps have rallied nicely year-to-date. Supposedly, they benefit the most from last December’s tax cuts and are also considered insulated from negative effects of a trade war. They now sit at critical technical juncture. Over the last eight weeks, the … Continued
SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26. The path of least resistance is down. A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy. This … Continued