Corporate buybacks were the savior last year, even as investors took cash out of equities and foreigners reduced exposure to US stocks. The status quo needs to change. Bulls cannot continue betting on continued buyback momentum. On a 12-month rolling … Continued
There are signs of macro deceleration. Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking. If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued
Thanks to last year’s tax cuts, corporate taxes have seen a big drop, with a wide gap between what corporations make and what they pay in taxes. While this gives them more money to spend on dividends and buybacks, this … Continued
On an absolute basis, margin debt remains huge, but has not grown much this year. Except for corporate buybacks, margin debt, along with other sources of buying power, have softened. The S&P 500 large cap index jumped three percent in … Continued
Corporate bond issuance continues to surprise on the downside. While some technical factors could be responsible for this, the deceleration comes amidst strong GDP growth. In July, US corporations issued $61 billion in total, made up of $52.5 billion in … Continued
SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory. Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued
President Trump’s tax plans could potentially impact U.S. corporate bond issuance once – and if – they become law. Annualizing the first four months, U.S. corporations are on pace to increasing bond issuance in double digits this year over 2016. … Continued
U.S. corporate bond issuance this year bolted out of the blocks in a strong fashion. In January and February, issuance totaled $296.9 billion, versus $252 billion in the corresponding period last year. High-yield, in particular, has had impressive issuance – … Continued
Quite a year 2016 turned out to be! Stocks did not quite get off the starting blocks in an ideal fashion. The S&P 500 large cap index opened 2016 down 1.5 percent on January 4 (was down as much as … Continued
November NYSE margin debt increased 3.4 percent month-over-month to $500.4 billion. This is the fourth time in the series’ history it has crossed $500 billion. The first one occurred in April 2015 when debt rose to $507.2 billion – a … Continued