In early April, the S&P 500 (2080.73) is rejected by a July 2015 declining trend line. After a subsequent slight pullback, the index reenergizes itself and goes for that resistance again. Last Thursday, it succeeds (Chart 1). But is the … Continued
Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows. From low … Continued
U.S. stocks began 2016 on the wrong foot. That is an understatement. In fact, major indices peaked intra-day on December 29th (2015). Using that high, the S&P 500 large cap index through the intra-day low on January 20th lost 13 … Continued
Turns out short interest was indeed a tailwind for stocks in the two weeks ended October 15th. On SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, short interest declined 10.6 percent, to 332.1 million (Chart 1). The ETF rallied 5.6 percent during … Continued
As we approach next year’s presidential elections, the debate surrounding the U.S. corporate tax rate is destined to get louder. One side argues corporations are already taxed at very high rates. The other side says they far from pay their … Continued
Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
U.S. corporate profits (adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption) broke a two-quarter downtrend in 2Q15, up 2.4 percent quarter-over-quarter to $2.06 trillion. This followed two consecutive quarterly drops in 4Q14 and 1Q15. A welcome change! The back-to-back drop in … Continued
U.S. corporate share buybacks in full swing; debt issuance on track for yet another record year Despite surge in issuance and rising share of high-yield debt, there is silver lining in cloud Corporations have been extending maturity as well as … Continued
In each of the past three reporting periods, short interest has dropped on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Not a whole lot. But it is a decline nevertheless. Since the middle of March through end-April, it dropped 1.5 percent on … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued