Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,002.8k, up 88.4k. The economy produced a weaker-than-expected 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent, as … Continued
It is early, but tech is beginning to lag. This is taking place even as the Fed is getting ready to begin an easing cycle. Historically, stocks tend to rally into this and then head lower. Tech is beginning to … Continued
The S&P 500 had not even dropped 10 percent from its record high from last month that there were calls for a 75-basis-point cut in an emergency Fed meeting. Three decades of the so-called Fed put have distorted the markets … Continued
As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
In the latter part of last week, tech delivered, helping the major US equity indices rally big. Two issues could make or mar this week. The FOMC meets, and two more tech behemoths report earnings. The FOMC meets this week, … Continued
Yet again, equity bulls successfully denied bears of an opportunity to build on incipient downside momentum. Action in the last two weeks had given the latter some opening, but the door was slammed shut after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It increasingly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued
Economic data for the most part continue to come in stronger than expected. In the futures market, traders’ rate expectations are now down to three to four cuts this year, down from six to seven post-December ‘Fed pivot’ meeting. It … Continued