CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued

Within Striking Distance Of Record Highs, S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Give Out Signs Of Fatigue

Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from their respective highs.  Daily momentum indicators are extended.  Breakout retests are the path of least resistance. The FOMC meets this week.  A 25-basis-point cut to a range of 175 to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday.  In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent.  This … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.8k, down 48. In the first stare down with markets since his appointment in February last year, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, blinked.  In this … Continued

Markets Not Ready If Fed Throws Curve Ball Wednesday

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The FOMC meets this week.  No change in expected.  But in the remaining four scheduled meetings, markets have priced in at least two cuts.  The Fed has a juggling act in hand.  The unemployment rate is near a six-decade low, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls.  There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued

Bulls Grow Their Ranks Further, Risks Rising Could Pull Back Horns

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

For the first time in 29 weeks, the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bears ratio crossed three.  Having come after a nearly 26 percent rally in the S&P 500, this likely is not the beginning of a trend. Investors Intelligence bulls jumped three … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 164k, down 12.5k. The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady at 225-250 basis points.  This was expected.  What was not expected was the dovish … Continued