Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 53k, down 159k. In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went up another $432.2 billion to $4.77 trillion – a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 156.7k, down 117.3k. It seems nothing matters. On a day the bond market found out the US economy produced much-better-than-expected 273,000 non-farm jobs in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 268.7k, up 23.3k. Last Tuesday’s intraday high of 1.95 percent was yet … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76. Since that peak … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity. Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued
The bull market is more than a decade old. Several metrics are at/near record territory. The energizer bunny keeps marching on. In recent sessions, bulls have faced difficulty taking out 3020s and may need to defend breakout retest at 2940s. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Major equity indices are within striking distance of new highs. The bull market has come a long way, sending the ratio of S&P 500 market cap to nominal GDP to near record territory. Unwinding is a matter of when, not … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
There is confusion in the markets. Several times this month, bulls tried to take momentum by the horns, but only to get gored, including last Friday. Bears have not had a smooth ride either. Amidst this back-and-forth action, major US … Continued