While there are some signs of near-term capitulation in equities – further raising odds of continuation of rally post-Wednesday reversal – it is perhaps also time to ruminate over why markets started the year all jittery and restless. From intra-day … Continued
In the past couple of weeks, there have been three important developments on the central-banking front, including the first hike by the Fed in nine years (Chart 1). It is too soon to say with conviction, but are major central … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
Spot gold fell 0.45 percent last week – its fifth consecutive down week. Over the past two weeks, the rate of decline has softened. But that is small consolation to gold bugs that have been at the losing end of … Continued
The FOMC minutes for the October 27-28 meeting released the day before have been perceived by the markets as a definite signal that the Fed is ready to move in December. The FOMC meets on December 14-15. Post-release of the … Continued
Two-year Treasury yields – supposedly the most sensitive to Fed policy – are acting as if they are beginning to price in a December hike. On October 14th, the two-year Treasury bill yielded 0.57 percent; by November 6th, the yield … Continued
Gold bugs should be wishing the U.S. government begins to run larger deficits. There are tons of reasons why the yellow metal has been languishing since it peaked in September 2011, but it turns out it does correlate negatively with … Continued
“The assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.” The above is from the October 28th FOMC statement … Continued
“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the … Continued
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today, the significance of which cannot be stressed enough. A lot is riding on this. After this meeting, there will be two more left this year – one late October and … Continued