Last week’s breakout in the Russell 2000 is diverging from small-caps’ profit momentum. It is possible the index is pricing in elevated earnings estimates for next year. It is equally possible the breakout occurred primarily due to short squeeze. In … Continued
There were new highs all around last week. But after having rallied huge in the past month, major equity indices are not sending one uniform message. A reprieve is due, even as volatility is getting ready to perk up – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 268.7k, up 153.8k. The 10-year treasury yield has been under pressure since posting a five-month high 1.69 percent on October 22. On Wednesday, as … Continued
We are at that time of the year when buying pressure tends to rise. Bulls seem to be positioning for this. We saw a semblance of this last week. But there is still two months left before the year is … Continued
As Jerome Powell indicated imminent tapering but not rate hikes, small-caps were bid up last Friday. The Russell 2000 is rangebound within a rectangle. A breakout can cause short squeeze. Should one occur, bulls need cooperation from the A-D line. … Continued
Small-cap earnings are coming in better than expected. The economy continues to churn out strong numbers. But small-caps, which by nature have larger domestic exposure, continue to trade within a five-month range. Near term, potential lower volatility can help bulls … Continued
Equal-Weighted Indexes pertaining to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out, although not decisively. Their market cap-weighted cousins could soon follow them. Should that happen, it is important to consider the vigor with which that happens. Equal-weighted indexes … Continued
It is early to declare that a trend is beginning, but last week was the first time in a while that major US equity indices were indecisive, showing early signs of fatigue. This is coming at a time when ratios … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 16-30 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Since peaking on April 17 at 58.50, XLB (54.40) has been down for four straight … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 16-29 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) In October last year, XLB (57.42) lost support just north of 56, which then repeatedly … Continued