Major Equity Indices Rally Last Week – S&P 500 Breaks Out, Russell 2000 Reverses At Resistance, Nasdaq 100 Ends Right On Resistance

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices all had a positive week last week, but with a varying degree of success. The S&P 500 broke out of dual resistance with bullish marubozu on Thursday and Friday, the Russell 2000 was denied at crucial … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 156k, up 14.7k. Last Friday’s high of 1.62 percent on the 10-year treasury yield represents a lower high versus 1.77 percent posted in March … Continued

Earnings Season Set To Begin This Week – Post-Earnings Reaction Key, With Large-Cap Multiples Increasingly Set To Act As Headwind

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest this week. Leading up to this, the revision trend is up and stocks have come under a little pressure. Post-earnings reaction likely gets influenced by several variables, not the least of which is … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 141.3k, down 39.9k. Minutes for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting are due out next Wednesday. During the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell set the stage … Continued

Going By Prior 3 Iterations Of QE, 10-Year T-Yield’s March High Could Prove To Be Important In Current QE

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued

After Tough September, Major US Equity Indices Ready For Relief Rally – Magnitude/Timing Notwithstanding

Investor sentiment has taken a hit in recent weeks but can continue lower in the right circumstances, although a pause is likely right here and now, helping stocks. Stocks took it on the nose in September. The S&P 500 tumbled … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 181.2k, up 120k. In February last year, the 10-year treasury yield breached mid-1.40s, before tumbling to bottom at 0.4 percent in the following month. … Continued

S&P 500 Unable To Rally On Big 1st Week Of Earnings Season; VIX Could Be Itching To Rally

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The 2Q earnings season has gotten off strong. Stocks, having already rallied big into it, yawned. This is coming at a time when sentiment remains effusive and some of the tailwinds potentially turning into headwinds. VIX’s monthly chart could be … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 13, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 56k, up 81.6k. One more month in which inflation overshoots the consensus. In June, headline and core CPI jumped 5.3 percent and 4.5 percent … Continued

Major Equity Indices Break Out To New Highs, Worth Keeping Immediate Support In Mind

Major equity indices had a good week last week. Stocks are currently in the midst of many crosscurrents, not to mention inflation, aggressive monetary policy and several extended metrics. Even though they have broken out of, or are near, important … Continued