Last Friday, the first print of 3Q16 GDP was published. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. Inventory contributed 0.61 percent to this growth, snapping five consecutive quarters of negative contribution. Similarly, exports’ contribution jumped to 1.17 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 25, 2016. 10-year note: Rates are rising. From 1.34 percent on July 6 this year to 1.88 percent on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield has come a long way. In … Continued
Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016. 10-year note: Both China and Japan reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in August – the former by a whopping $33.7 billion and the latter by … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 11, 2016. 10-year note: In late September, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, said the bank might be able to help the U.S. economy in a downturn if it could buy stocks … Continued
Building on the crude theme a week ago, spot West Texas Intermediate crude did indeed break out of a declining trend line drawn from May 2015 (Chart 1). It rallied 3.3 percent for the week. For the last eight sessions, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016. 10-year note: Bloomberg ran a story on Tuesday saying the ECB would probably gradually wind down bond purchases before the end of quantitative easing, and that it may … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 27, 2016. 10-year note: Once again, Mario Draghi, ECB chief, urged Eurozone governments to complement central-bank action. He was speaking before the European parliament on Monday. Mr. Draghi said there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy. So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016. 10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued