What a start? The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start. The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year. Some others like the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to New Year’s Day last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: ‘Will it or wouldn’t it?’ was … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Christmas last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) … Continued
For the second consecutive year, U.S. stocks are struggling to get traction in December. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 large cap index is down 0.9 percent. December last year was down 0.4 percent. In fact, before trading began last week, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
U.S. multinationals can breathe a little easier. Maybe. Exports are under pressure… it has been that way for a while now. Nominally, U.S. exports of goods and services peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hawks are in, doves are out. At least that is how markets are beginning to bet on the odds of an interest-rate hike … Continued