“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The above remark is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, although some dispute it. Regardless who said it, it is a nice quote. More … Continued
Since the August 24th low in U.S. stocks and the subsequent rally, some signs of risk-on are visible, but small-caps are substantially lagging large-caps. In Chart 1, a product of XLV (healthcare), XLU (utilities) and XLP (consumer staples) is divided … Continued
Markets tend to be either risk-on or risk-off. For the most part, anyway. One of the ways market participants can keep a pulse on risk-taking – or a lack thereof – is by simply looking at which sectors are outperforming. … Continued
Buy-the-dippers have been a roadblock to shorts’ success. It is probably not an exaggeration to say that the prevailing buy-the-dip mentality in U.S. equities has done to this bull market what oxygen does to a fire. When O is present, … Continued
Short interest as of the end of March was flat on an index level, but action was hot and heavy on an industry/sector level. On the NYSE, short interest was 15.68 billion, down from 15.69 billion two weeks ago. On … Continued
NYSE short interest rises to match mid-Oct highs, diverges from Nasdaq Within Nasdaq, shorts aggressive in pure tech, but less so in biotech Relatively low short interest on IBB probably does not help longs It is getting a little difficult … Continued
Bull markets need fuel for continued push higher. Money can leave other asset classes, such as bonds, and into stocks. Or, they can come out of, let us say, money-market funds into stocks. Foreigners can raise net purchases of U.S. … Continued
Stocks need fuel to rise. Be it plain-vanilla inflows, be it rotation from other asset classes like bonds, be it corporate buybacks, or be it squeezed shorts. The latter has played a big role particularly since the October 15th bottom … Continued
October 15th bottom in stocks forces shorts to cover in many sectors IWM expends lots of short-covering fuel to approach crucial resistance Nasdaq, NYSE short interest at multi-year highs, can bulls force squeeze? Since stocks bottomed on October 15th, naysayers … Continued
Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued