Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2016. 10-year note: From the July 6 (this year) all-time low of 1.34 percent to the Thursday high of 2.49 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 115 basis point in … Continued
U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory and depreciation in 3Q16 grew the most quarter-over-quarter since 2Q14. They rose 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, breaking five consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline (Chart 4). Profits peaked … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued
Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance. Has truth in it. For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate. As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it. Of course, all … Continued
Here is a brief review of change in short interest in the November 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors (by time of publication, short interest for the Nasdaq and the NYSE Group has not yet been published). Of the … Continued
U.S. sales of homes – both new and existing – are at/near cycle highs. This amidst personal incomes that are struggling to rise with surging home prices. Against this background comes the recent backup in mortgage rates, particularly post-Trump victory. … Continued
Monday marked a history of sorts. All four major equity indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite and the Russell 2000 small cap index – broke out to fresh new highs. The last time this … Continued
Post-Trump victory, the Treasury yield curve has moved up as well as steepened, with the 10-year yield rising 47 basis points to 2.34 percent. Yields have risen one full point since the July 6th all-time low of 1.34 percent. Inflation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation. The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued
The pace of stock buybacks by S&P 500 companies continued to decelerate in 3Q16. With 86 percent reporting, as per Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices, buybacks are down eight percent quarter-over-quarter and down 22 percent year-over-year. These are … Continued