The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to New Year’s Day last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: ‘Will it or wouldn’t it?’ was … Continued
Oil bulls can take heart. Maybe. Spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($37.07/barrel) is likely on the verge of a 10/20 (daily moving average) crossover. The crude has more or less been going sideways/slightly up the past couple of weeks, and … Continued
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. national home price index advanced 5.2 percent year-over-year in October. This was the fastest growth since July last year. However, annual price appreciation has been decelerating since peaking at 10.9 percent two years ago. The October 2013 … Continued
On Monday, the CBOE equity put-to-call ratio surged to 1.21. Readings north of one are very rare. Below are the last three times when this occurred and how stocks fared subsequently. August 21, 2015 (1.04): U.S. stocks were in the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Christmas last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) … Continued
For the second consecutive year, U.S. stocks are struggling to get traction in December. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 large cap index is down 0.9 percent. December last year was down 0.4 percent. In fact, before trading began last week, the … Continued
Sales of existing homes collapsed 10.5 percent month-over-month in November, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million units. This was the first time since February this year sales came in below five million. November sales were nearly 15 … Continued
One look at the red line in Chart 1, and it is easy to see what crude oil has been through in the past year and a half. Intra-day, off the June 2014 high through last week’s sub-$35/barrel low, spot … Continued
In the past couple of weeks, there have been three important developments on the central-banking front, including the first hike by the Fed in nine years (Chart 1). It is too soon to say with conviction, but are major central … Continued
December thus far has been uncharacteristically quiet. And that is putting it nicely. U.S. stocks have failed to get seasonal traction this month. So far. There are eight sessions remaining before the year is out. So there is hope. Since … Continued