Stagnant wages thorn in U.S. recovery’s side WMT, TJX, AET, SBUX, GAP have announced plans to hike wages Be careful what we wish for, given elevated valuation and risk of margin compression? One of the things that have been a … Continued
’15 growth in revenue/earnings expected to decelerate for most S&P 500 sectors Signal from options market points to probable pressure ahead for equities S&P 500 looks set to at least test if recent breakout was genuine At first glance, U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again. They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period. Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued
Short interest inched up on NYSE and Nasdaq, and hovers near multi-year highs Shorts squeezed out of several sector ETFs since mid-Oct bottom in stocks Shorts probably will get active and rebuild position in XLU, XLE, IWM Short interest inched … Continued
Contrary message from U.S. dollar and bonds as to prospects for interest-rate hike by Fed Latest Humphrey-Hawkins testimony shows Chair Janet Yellen leaning dovish Hedge funds are neck-deep in bullish dollar bets, expecting higher rates Currency and bond markets are … Continued
Chair Yellen brings up issue of “elevated” P/E and P/S ratios In 1996 and 2014, markets ignored Fed chiefs’ valuation warnings Tight R between SPX and operating earnings, which probably peaked in 3Q14 One of the nuggets in Federal Reserve … Continued
Sell-side S&P 500 revenue growth estimates for 2015 goes negative High correlation between SPX revenues and U.S. nominal GDP 2015 U.S. GDP estimates in 3% range way too optimistic? The 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported 4Q were tracking … Continued
North American oil rig count drops 37 percent in four months Historically, oil inventory has tended to peak well after peak in rig count WTI unable to take out $53.50-$54 resistance; near-term, path of least resistance down One of the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 17 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield had been trending down within a channel since it peaked on December 30, 2013 at three percent. Early this year, … Continued
Nice pickup in U.S. C&I loans in recent months, but… From time QE started, banks’ excess reserves at Fed have quadrupled Odds of these reserves making way into economy essentially nil as loan demand weak In recent months, there has … Continued