QE Only A Matter Of Time?
Two different central bankers from two different continents made news yesterday – both giving us a nod and a wink that at best low rates are here to stay and at worst more stimulus may be coming our way. Peter … Continued
Volatility To Stay Volatile A While?
There is a lot going on in the land of volatility. Readings are extreme. On Monday, VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index, surged to the highest since January 2009 (Chart 1), and RVX, the Russell 2000 Volatility Index, to the … Continued
This Stock Rout Has Potential To Be More Than Plain-Vanilla Correction
Velocity of declines in equities breakneck and unsettling Worse scenario is if oversold bounce/rally gets sold hard near resistance If consumer/CEO confidence is impaired, Fed’s tool box empty to tackle weaker economy Another interesting session in the markets! Stocks picked … Continued
Weekly Covered Call On GLD
Gold is having a golden moment. Relatively, that is. It acts well, but given that it has rallied eight-plus percent in a month, it is probably in need of a breather near-term for its own good. The metal has had … Continued
Covered Call On IWM After Bloody Week
After last week’s bloodbath in stocks, Friday brought a small consolation for small-cap investors. Maybe. During the week, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lost major support – which is three percent away. The 118-119 support goes back to March last … Continued
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials contained in the Commitment of Traders report as of August 18, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Please note that these holdings are as of Tuesday. The S&P 500 swooned six percent in the next … Continued
Markets Doing Fed’s Work — Real Interest Rates Are Tighter
Market participants have no clue how to read Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. The latter failed to settle the debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will move in September. Treasury bonds are acting as if the message was dovish … Continued
U.S. Stocks Increasingly Reliant On Buybacks, Even As ’15 SPX Earnings Set To Drop Y/Y
Late last year as the Federal Reserve was unwinding quantitative easing (QE), there was suspense in the air as to how this might impact U.S. stocks. Bulls argued QE was never a factor in stocks’ surge, rather earnings were. Bears … Continued
ITB Breaks Out, With Improved Price Action, But Worth Waiting For Breakout Retest
ITB, the iShares Home Construction ETF, has broken out. Support at $26 goes back to May 2013, and was defended several times during late April and early June. Since late April, ITB had also been trading within an ascending channel. … Continued
JNK Relief Rally Possible Short-Term, But More Pain Probably Lies Ahead Medium- To Long-Term
One look at Chart 1, and it is hard to notice a significant change in momentum behind the U.S. high-yield debt market. Through July, issuance totaled $188.4 billion. Annualized, 2015 is on track to issuing north of $300 billion – … Continued