After four weekly drops in a row, major US stock indices gained last week. Encouragingly for equity bulls, some important patterns have formed technically. More gains are probable. Before last week’s 1.4-percent jump, the S&P 500 suffered four consecutive down … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.6k, up 39.4k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting, out Wednesday, essentially repeated what the post-meeting statement and/or Chair Jerome Powell said in … Continued
It is common these days for technical indicators to misfire. Amidst this, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio is acting strange; if past is prelude, it is signaling a massive rally in US equities, but at a time when distortions prevail, … Continued
Leading up to the 4Q22 earnings reporting season, the sell-side continues to wax enthusiastic about this year’s earnings prospects. The enthusiasm looks improbable considering the meaningful rise in interest rates last year is all set to filter through to the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 344.2k, up 27.3k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 50 basis … Continued
The S&P 500 has dropped three weeks in a row. Santa Claus rally did not materialize this year, but the bulls just might get lucky as the year begins to wind down. Equity bulls found it very difficult to bust … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 316.9k, down 59.5k. The Bank of Japan, which began to use its balance sheet as a policy tool much earlier than its peers in … Continued
The BoJ took everyone by surprise this week. Shocked markets have concluded that the central bank, which lagged its global peers in rate tightening, has no other alternative than to join them. In the futures market, non-commercials’ net shorts in … Continued
The federal government is up to the gills in debt. Interest payments run up in the billions every year. This was not much of an issue in a low-interest-rate environment. But right now, the Federal Reserve is tightening. Higher rates … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.4k, up 7.2k. “Don’t fight the Fed” is an oft-quoted phrase in financial markets. When post-2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve aggressively expanded its … Continued