Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 17, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 152.3k, up 57.7k. Both the 50- and 200-day moving averages closed Thursday at 0.77 percent. The former is rising and the latter dropping. Friday, … Continued
Pfizer’s positive vaccine news on Monday last week elicited favorable investor response. Moderna’s positive news this Monday generated a lukewarm response. Fatigue is setting in. Major US equity indices are in overbought territory, particularly daily, with several sentiment readings already … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 10, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Veterans Day holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 94.6k, up 100.3k. The last time the 10-year Treasury yield (0.91 … Continued
Last Monday, major equity indices all opened up strong but by Friday they diverged. Small-caps led, while tech lagged. Despite this, they all closed out the week at/near resistance. Breakout will further push them into extended territory. A breather is … Continued
Easy money is here to stay. That was pretty much the message Chair Powell delivered this week. The US economy is up to the gills in leverage. A sustained rise in interest rates will hurt. The Fed will try to … Continued
US corporations continue to aggressively issue debt in the bond market. Even amidst this supply, demand remains good. Both LQD and HYG are near their record highs. Besides the Fed essentially acting as a backstop, corporate boards are probably also … Continued
The Russell 2000 rallied huge the last seven sessions, as post-Pfizer news in particular investors have rerated value versus growth. With this, next year’s earnings estimates are front and center. Small-cap stocks have delivered big gains for investors November-to-date. With … Continued
US equities surged last week pricing in a divided government – a Democrat in the White House, Republicans in control of the Senate and Democrats of the House of Representatives. Major indices rallied right into important resistance. The focus now … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 3, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 5.7k, up 21.9k. No sooner did the 10-year Treasury yield (0.82 percent) recapture the 200-day than it was lost and then gained back again. … Continued
Markets that were prepared for a blue wave scrambled to adjust when they found out the red wall would not break down. Assets see-sawed in overnight futures as the vote count started coming in. As things stand, results in some … Continued