Post-Powell’s supposed dovish switch last week, equity bulls spent lots of energy to rally the S&P 500 within less than two points of the 200-day. If the trade-tariff truce the US and China reached over the weekend in Argentina is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 284.2k, down 83k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, moved markets on Wednesday. A whole host of asset classes reacted to his Economic Club of New … Continued
US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week. Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better. Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued
If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011. Thursday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent. Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 502.8k, down 41.2k. The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade in a no-man’s land. Sort of. On October 5, it began retreating after touching … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record. They have since reduced … Continued
On a 12-month rolling total basis, federal deficit in August shot up to just under $900 billion. This at a time when the US economy is in expansion. In all probability, the red ink only gets worse from here. The … Continued