Among several culprits behind the recent sell-off in global stocks, two probably stand out: the yuan and crude oil. Chinese stocks began this week where they left off on Friday, dropping more than five percent on Monday. Last week, the … Continued
“Greed, for lack of a better word, is good.” So says the fictional character Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film Wall Street. Then there is the saying ‘bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.’ The hypothetical buy-write involving … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The World Bank, warning of an increase in risks to the global economy, expects growth this year to come in at 2.9 percent, … Continued
What a start? The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start. The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year. Some others like the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to New Year’s Day last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: ‘Will it or wouldn’t it?’ was … Continued
Oil bulls can take heart. Maybe. Spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($37.07/barrel) is likely on the verge of a 10/20 (daily moving average) crossover. The crude has more or less been going sideways/slightly up the past couple of weeks, and … Continued
On Monday, the CBOE equity put-to-call ratio surged to 1.21. Readings north of one are very rare. Below are the last three times when this occurred and how stocks fared subsequently. August 21, 2015 (1.04): U.S. stocks were in the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Christmas last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) … Continued
For the second consecutive year, U.S. stocks are struggling to get traction in December. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 large cap index is down 0.9 percent. December last year was down 0.4 percent. In fact, before trading began last week, the … Continued
One look at the red line in Chart 1, and it is easy to see what crude oil has been through in the past year and a half. Intra-day, off the June 2014 high through last week’s sub-$35/barrel low, spot … Continued