Amid slowing U.S. productivity, wage hike means margin shrinkage for business

posted in: Economy | 0

Recent WMT announcement notwithstanding, wage stagnation has been a trend 4Q14 U.S. non-farm output per hour goes negative – first drop since 3Q11 Businesses can pay productive workforce higher wages and still win Later this morning, we get February’s U.S. … Continued

The real bubble we should all be worried about — easy money

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Equity bulls seek to justify why Nasdaq of 2015 is not as bubbly as was Nasdaq of 2000 Bubble elsewhere – in VC, in biotech, and most importantly, in easy money Excesses driven by ‘this time is different’ psychology never … Continued

Recent wage-hike plans of WMT, TJX, AET one-off or new trend? Margin implications?

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Stagnant wages thorn in U.S. recovery’s side WMT, TJX, AET, SBUX, GAP have announced plans to hike wages Be careful what we wish for, given elevated valuation and risk of margin compression? One of the things that have been a … Continued

‘Buy the dips’ in process of transitioning into ‘sell the rallies’?

’15 growth in revenue/earnings expected to decelerate for most S&P 500 sectors Signal from options market points to probable pressure ahead for equities S&P 500 looks set to at least test if recent breakout was genuine At first glance, U.S. … Continued

Dollar seems finally ready to come under pressure

Contrary message from U.S. dollar and bonds as to prospects for interest-rate hike by Fed Latest Humphrey-Hawkins testimony shows Chair Janet Yellen leaning dovish Hedge funds are neck-deep in bullish dollar bets, expecting higher rates Currency and bond markets are … Continued

Homebuilder stocks betting new households will start owning more than renting

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U.S. household formation surges 1.8mn in four months to December Homebuilder sentiment drops to four-month low in Dec, but stays elevated ITB priced for reversal in years-long trend of renting versus owning – not a base case There are good … Continued

XLY, RTH break out — will consumers splurge gas windfall?

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Retail sales soft in Jan – first back-to-back m/m drop since mid-12 Consumers not quite ready to do away with savings from low gas price XLY, RTH break out, betting consumers will end up spending gas windfall U.S. retail sales … Continued

Did NFIB just pour cold water on NFP wages enthusiasm?

posted in: Economy | 0

Jan pickup in U.S. average hourly wages after Dec drop welcome relief Nevertheless, NFIB members’ comp plans tumble big time in January Loss of high-paying oil jobs will put downward pressure on wages One of the reasons January’s employment report … Continued