Sell-side S&P 500 revenue growth estimates for 2015 goes negative High correlation between SPX revenues and U.S. nominal GDP 2015 U.S. GDP estimates in 3% range way too optimistic? The 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported 4Q were tracking … Continued
Nice pickup in U.S. C&I loans in recent months, but… From time QE started, banks’ excess reserves at Fed have quadrupled Odds of these reserves making way into economy essentially nil as loan demand weak In recent months, there has … Continued
U.S. household formation surges 1.8mn in four months to December Homebuilder sentiment drops to four-month low in Dec, but stays elevated ITB priced for reversal in years-long trend of renting versus owning – not a base case There are good … Continued
Retail sales soft in Jan – first back-to-back m/m drop since mid-12 Consumers not quite ready to do away with savings from low gas price XLY, RTH break out, betting consumers will end up spending gas windfall U.S. retail sales … Continued
Jan pickup in U.S. average hourly wages after Dec drop welcome relief Nevertheless, NFIB members’ comp plans tumble big time in January Loss of high-paying oil jobs will put downward pressure on wages One of the reasons January’s employment report … Continued
BLS’ January oil-and-gas-extraction data gives false sense of security Challenger survey shows 20k energy job-cuts in Jan, more than in all of 2014 Boom bust normal in U.S. oil patch, but shale boom of last five years like no other … Continued
Growth rate of U.S. exports decelerating since 2Q14 At north of 13 percent, exports’ share of GDP remains very high Surging $ no good news for exports; some signs of fatigue, but buck’s momentum intact The advance estimate of real … Continued
U.S. consumer confidence has surged since July 2014 Decent inverse correlation between gas price and consumer sentiment No correlation between personal consumption expenditures and consumer sentiment Consumer confidence is soaring in the U.S. Since July 2014, the Thomson Reuters/University of … Continued
Signs late last week WTI itching to move higher play out perfectly Oil as much a physical commodity as it is for investment/speculative purposes After 20-plus-percent move in four sessions, healthy if it retreats and finds support at 47 Some … Continued
Disinflationary/deflationary pressures intensifying globally Fed favorite core PCE inflation persistently under two percent despite three QE’s Bonds do not see inflation as far as eye can see, signal slowdown in activity; stocks continue merry way Monday morning, investors will learn … Continued