U.S. retail sales jumped 0.7 percent month-over-month in November. Growth was well spread out – from cars to clothing to furniture to electronic items. Gasoline, of course, was down – down 0.8 percent m/m. But that drop was not sufficient … Continued
JOLTS data came out this AM, and continues to point toward a healthy job market. This data series only goes back to 2004, but as the chart below shows, it correlates well with U.S. non-farm payroll. Both leading up to … Continued
Not to beat a dead horse, but the current U.S. recovery falls short in many ways. One of which is wages. Six years into the recovery, the share of national income continues to tilt heavily toward corporations. Labor’s is just … Continued
Inability of offensives to take the lead has been a thorn in the side of rally since Oct 15th low Outperformance last week of XLY vs. XLP and HYG vs. LQD sign of trend change? Duel on between seasonally favorable … Continued
Post-November jobs report this morning, we are seeing some weird reaction in the bond market. Two-year yields have gone up more vs. the 10-year. As a result, the curve is flatter. In fact, as shown in the chart, the curve … Continued
Healthy U.S. non-farm employment versus ultra-low civilian labor force participation rate: Notwithstanding September weakening, job openings has tracked job creation very well: Despite improvement in job creation, wage growth continues to be a dud: Belt-tightening continues in federal payroll — … Continued
Balance sheets have diverged between Fed and ECB As eurozone economy/inflation fall short, ECB under pressure to do QE If there is no QE from ECB, euro probably has a lot of catching up to do on the upside There … Continued
Facing lower earnings, several oil companies already plan to cut 2015 capex U.S. energy sector accounts for whopping one-third of S&P 500 capex Given drop in oil price, ‘15 S&P 500 EPS estimates too optimistic Oil’s sharp drop can reverberate … Continued
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2014 on track for 3rd successive year of $300bn-plus high-yield issuance; energy 15% of junk market By not cutting 30mn bpd production target, OPEC ready to lock horns with shale oil As both sides play game of ‘who will blink … Continued