QE Only A Matter Of Time?
Two different central bankers from two different continents made news yesterday – both giving us a nod and a wink that at best low rates are here to stay and at worst more stimulus may be coming our way. Peter … Continued
This Stock Rout Has Potential To Be More Than Plain-Vanilla Correction
Velocity of declines in equities breakneck and unsettling Worse scenario is if oversold bounce/rally gets sold hard near resistance If consumer/CEO confidence is impaired, Fed’s tool box empty to tackle weaker economy Another interesting session in the markets! Stocks picked … Continued
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials contained in the Commitment of Traders report as of August 18, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Please note that these holdings are as of Tuesday. The S&P 500 swooned six percent in the next … Continued
Markets Doing Fed’s Work — Real Interest Rates Are Tighter
Market participants have no clue how to read Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. The latter failed to settle the debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will move in September. Treasury bonds are acting as if the message was dovish … Continued
ITB Breaks Out, With Improved Price Action, But Worth Waiting For Breakout Retest
ITB, the iShares Home Construction ETF, has broken out. Support at $26 goes back to May 2013, and was defended several times during late April and early June. Since late April, ITB had also been trading within an ascending channel. … Continued
COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year? The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued
Stagnant U.S. Productivity And Decelerating Corporate Earnings
U.S. productivity continues to leave a lot to be desired, and that can have repercussions for corporate earnings. Non-farm output per hour grew a mere 0.26 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, down from 0.63 percent sequentially. Quarter-over-quarter, it rose … Continued
If SPX Ests Come In As Expected, ’15 Operating Earnings Would Suffer 1st ↓ Since ’08
A July 2nd post discussed the possibility that operating earnings for S&P 500 companies might decline this year over 2014. The assessment was based on the relationship between SPX earnings and the BEA’s measure of corporate profits (adjusted for inventory … Continued
COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued
XLY And XLP Both Act Strong At First Glance, But Latter Leading On The Quiet
Markets tend to be either risk-on or risk-off. For the most part, anyway. One of the ways market participants can keep a pulse on risk-taking – or a lack thereof – is by simply looking at which sectors are outperforming. … Continued