Until last Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell, it was looking like US equities would continue to rally, but post-speech, the potentially rosy outlook got turned on its head. From the June 17 intraday bottom of 3637 to the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 23, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.2k, up 18k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, strongly pushed back against any notion of a pivot. Post-July … Continued
Homebuilder optimism is catching up with weakening home sales. Starts have responded and inventory is sharply rising – a byproduct of rapidly appreciating prices and a rise in mortgage rates. Buyers need to see relief on both these fronts before … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 16, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 363.1k, up 76.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of last Tuesday, they held 363,128 contracts, up from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 9, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 286.5k, down 9k. Non-commercials slightly cut back net shorts in 10-year note futures. At 286,478 contracts, holdings remain elevated. In the week before, as … Continued
At least a section of markets is behaving as if July’s job gains is sustainable, and the US economy is not on the verge of falling apart. The Russell 2000 has scored some technical wins, but the S&P 500 and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 2, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 295.5k, up 95.6k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield breach low-2.70s than it was reclaimed. This support goes back to April. Ordinarily, once … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.7k, up 333. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth of the eight scheduled meetings this year. The Federal Reserve will … Continued
US stocks in general sold off last week, but the lows of Wednesday and Thursday were bought, with Friday’s rally the icing on the cake. This took place amidst June’s red-hot CPI report and disappointing earnings from JPM. As 2Q … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.4k, down 62.1k. There was some jawboning this week. On Wednesday, inflation measured by the consumer price index showed consumer prices in June surged … Continued