At least a section of markets is behaving as if July’s job gains is sustainable, and the US economy is not on the verge of falling apart. The Russell 2000 has scored some technical wins, but the S&P 500 and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 2, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 295.5k, up 95.6k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield breach low-2.70s than it was reclaimed. This support goes back to April. Ordinarily, once … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.7k, up 333. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth of the eight scheduled meetings this year. The Federal Reserve will … Continued
US stocks in general sold off last week, but the lows of Wednesday and Thursday were bought, with Friday’s rally the icing on the cake. This took place amidst June’s red-hot CPI report and disappointing earnings from JPM. As 2Q … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.4k, down 62.1k. There was some jawboning this week. On Wednesday, inflation measured by the consumer price index showed consumer prices in June surged … Continued
The Fed is using both conventional and unconventional tools to deal with surging inflation. This is bound to impact economic activity, which is already showing signs of deceleration. Inflation could be the next shoe to drop. Any signs of this … Continued
Corporate bond issuance is on pace to decline 14.3 percent this year. This comes at a time when corporations have been aggressively buying back shares. With six months in, US corporate bond issuance remains soft. In June, corporations issued $73.2 … Continued
Next week, the 2Q earnings season begins in earnest. Equities took a big hit in the first half. The sell-side is yet to bring out scissors as relates to 2022/2023 earnings estimates. It will be even more disappointing if corporate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 28, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 181.7k, down 46.5k. A couple of weeks after forming a weekly shooting star, it is looking more and more likely that the 10-year treasury … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 21, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 228.2k, up 22.7k. Jerome Powell this week testified on monetary policy in front of Congress. Just last week, after raising the fed funds rate … Continued