US home prices continue to gallop ahead. There has been a marked increase in owners’ equity. This should buoy consumer sentiment and help the economy. The risk is when – not if – the trend reverses and goes the other … Continued
Major US equity indices are diverging. The S&P 500 is itching to once again break out, even as the Nasdaq 100 acts tentative. Tech has suffered technical damage, and without the sector’s participation, it is hard to imagine the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 12.3k, up 8.2k. The 10-year treasury yield enjoyed several breakouts this year – out of one percent early January, 1.2 percent mid-February and 1.4 … Continued
One year ago this month, amidst all the gloom and doom, small-caps bottomed. Now, amidst high optimism for GDP and earnings growth, sellers are itching to cash in on their massive gains. After a massive one-year rally, small-caps look ripe … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 4.1k, up 50.2k. The FOMC left the benchmark rate between zero and 25 basis points this week. Also left unchanged was the asset buying … Continued
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued
Indices are beginning to diverge. Last week, large- and small-caps posted new highs, but tech struggled to put its act together. This is taking place at a time when sentiment is no longer as effusive as several weeks ago. If … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 46.1k, down 49.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s second meeting. Six more remain – the scheduled ones, that is. A … Continued
Fed chair made it clear last week that things have not deteriorated enough for them to act. In this atmosphere, the 10-year rate can head toward two percent. Equities, in all probability, will not like that, even though they are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 95.6k, up 98.4k. Chair Jerome Powell apparently failed to calm bond-market nerves on Thursday – or at least that is how markets’ reaction would … Continued