Last Friday, the first print of 3Q16 GDP was published. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. Inventory contributed 0.61 percent to this growth, snapping five consecutive quarters of negative contribution. Similarly, exports’ contribution jumped to 1.17 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 25, 2016. 10-year note: Rates are rising. From 1.34 percent on July 6 this year to 1.88 percent on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield has come a long way. In … Continued
U.S. household real estate has come a long way. Back in 2Q06, the market value of U.S. household real estate peaked at $22.7 trillion, before coming under sustained pressure after the bubble burst. Amazingly, in the next five years, it … Continued
Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016. 10-year note: Both China and Japan reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in August – the former by a whopping $33.7 billion and the latter by … Continued
The top two holders of Treasury securities have been cutting back their holdings. In August, China and Japan respectively held $1.19 trillion and $1.14 trillion. China’s peaked at $1.32 trillion in November 2013 and Japan’s at $1.24 trillion a year … Continued
One of the hallmarks of post-Great Recession recovery has been subdued capital expenditures. In 2Q16, real non-residential fixed investment was $2.19 trillion (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) – essentially flat since 3Q14. Investment peaked at $2.22 trillion in 3Q15. … Continued
Equity bears have been rewarded the past couple of weeks, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 1.6 percent. There is likely more reward medium term, but near-term is a toss-up. In the wake of the 2.5-percent drop on … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 11, 2016. 10-year note: In late September, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, said the bank might be able to help the U.S. economy in a downturn if it could buy stocks … Continued
August non-farm job openings fell by 388,000 month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million – an eight-month low. This was the largest m/m decrease since August last year. July’s 5.83 million essentially matched 5.79 million in July … Continued