Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2016. 10-year note: The 25-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate last December was the first in nine-plus years. At 0.4 percent, rates are still zero-bound. Growth remains sluggish, but … Continued
“…I want to solve health care, jobs, border control, tax reform.” The above quote is from a weekend interview president-elect Donald Trump gave to the Wall Street Journal. The article also talks about his willingness to keep parts of the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2016. 10-year note: The 10-year yield (cash) has been trapped in a descending channel for the past three decades, having peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981. From the July … Continued
U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in 3Q16, owing primarily to inventory buildup and increase in exports. The two respectively contributed 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent to real GDP growth. Real final sales to domestic … Continued
Last Friday, the first print of 3Q16 GDP was published. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. Inventory contributed 0.61 percent to this growth, snapping five consecutive quarters of negative contribution. Similarly, exports’ contribution jumped to 1.17 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 25, 2016. 10-year note: Rates are rising. From 1.34 percent on July 6 this year to 1.88 percent on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield has come a long way. In … Continued
U.S. household real estate has come a long way. Back in 2Q06, the market value of U.S. household real estate peaked at $22.7 trillion, before coming under sustained pressure after the bubble burst. Amazingly, in the next five years, it … Continued
Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016. 10-year note: Both China and Japan reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in August – the former by a whopping $33.7 billion and the latter by … Continued
The top two holders of Treasury securities have been cutting back their holdings. In August, China and Japan respectively held $1.19 trillion and $1.14 trillion. China’s peaked at $1.32 trillion in November 2013 and Japan’s at $1.24 trillion a year … Continued