Bloomberg carried an article this Tuesday highlighting what it called shrinking cash piles at American companies. Cash and equivalents dropped to a median $860 million at S&P 500 companies in 2Q16. At the end of that quarter, cash ex-financial sector … Continued
Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Prior to this week, after hawkish comments from several FOMC members, it looked like the August jobs report was the sole make-or-break data … Continued
After 11 consecutive months of remaining sub-parity, the green line in Chart 1 went back over in July. The line represents a ratio of NYSE margin debt to its 12-month average. When the latter is higher than the former, it … Continued
Of late, there is a spring in small-caps’ step. Can it be sustained? In August, the Russell 2000 small cap index (1239.91) jumped 1.6 percent, even as the S&P 500 large cap index inched down 0.1 percent and the Dow … Continued
In an otherwise lackluster post-Great Recession recovery, housing has provided decent support to the U.S. economy. The only question is durability – or a lack thereof. Off post-bubble lows, sales of existing homes increased from a seasonally adjusted annual rate … Continued
Jackson Hole came and went. At the annual confab, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, last Friday seemed to agree with preceding hawkish messages from three prominent FOMC members – Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, William Dudley, New York Fed president, and John Williams, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In the Greenspan era, traders did not have to deal with the kind of mixed messages they do today. Back then, the message … Continued
Three prominent FOMC members spoke in the past week, and all three adopted a hawkish tone. Might they be trying to ready the markets for a rate hike in the September 20-21 meeting? With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for … Continued
That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable. That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable. What is debatable … Continued