The Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s July survey of fund managers was out the other day, and shows how lop-sided investor sentiment is at the moment. A net 61 percent are now overweight equities. The reading is highest since early … Continued
Heard yesterday on Bloomberg Radio that U.S. consumption of boats and RVs is through the roof; RV sales are back to pre-Great Recession days, even as sales of boats are below that watermark but remain very healthy. These items tend … Continued
The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index fell four percent last week. In the futures market, large speculators could not have ridden it better. They have been net short since early April – by both cutting longs and raising shorts – … Continued
Short interest continues to inch up. By June-end, Nasdaq’s went up 0.6 percent period-over-period to 8.9bn – highest since end-September 2008 – and NYSE’s edged up 0.7 percent p/p to 14.6bn. What is going on in the Naz in particular … Continued
As suggested last week, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has met with resistance. The index seems to be putting in a top, at least in the near-term. To refresh, late-February/early March, previously hot, momentum-packed groups such as small-caps, biotechs, … Continued
In many ways, this cycle has been like none other. Equities continue to grind higher. Multiples (valuation) continue to expand. The Fed continues to provide support – both monetary and verbal. Equity bulls continue to throw the caution flag out … Continued
The relentless push higher by U.S. equities is baffling, but it is what it is. All along, there has been no shortage of doubters. As a matter of fact, their ranks have consistently grown particularly this year. At the end … Continued
Options provide a reliable way to measure investor/trader sentiment. The accompanying chart uses two sources – the CBOE put-to-call ratio and the ISEE index, all equity. The former is currently flashing yellow/even red, the latter not quite so. In other … Continued
Crude oil is on the move. Since early April to last week’s high, the Brent has gone up by over 11 percent. The West Texas Intermediate found a trough much earlier – early this year – and until the high … Continued
For the last five years, the S&P 500 index has bounced up and down within a channel. Technicals have been in gross overbought territory for a while now. The last time the index had a 10-percent correction was two years … Continued