It is a seasonally strong period for stocks. Bulls are wasting no time getting ready for this. Stocks are rallying. In the best of circumstances, there is room to run still, with the caveat that an important inflation report is … Continued
Small-caps are lagging. With a large domestic exposure, these companies offer a reliable way to take a pulse of the economy. Rates have gone up a lot and will rise even more. A recession is imminent next year. Large-caps’ recent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 343k, up 60k. FOMC minutes for the November 1-2 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 75 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 283.1k, down 15.3k. FOMC hawks and doves are getting ready for a duel. Last Thursday, October’s CPI report showed headline and core consumer prices … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 298.3k, up 50.6k. It is beginning to look like FOMC members are no longer on the same page as they probably were until just … Continued
Equity bulls keep wishing for a pivot that keeps eluding. As things stand, bears are probably eyeing the June lows at a minimum. But at some point, the selling needs to be faded as the season turns favorable. No sooner … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 247.7k, down 65.7k. The FOMC meets this week. The November 1-2 meeting is the year’s seventh scheduled meeting. One more remains after this – … Continued
VIX acts like it wants to go lower for now. Concurrently, VIX:VXV is in overbought territory. And both the CBOE put-to-call ratio and the ISEE index point to growing investor pessimism. For the first time in four weeks, VIX went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 18, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.4k, down 26.7k. Relentless is the word that comes to mind the way the 10-year treasury yield has rallied the last 12 weeks. On … Continued
At least until August, foreigners were crystal clear which US assets to part with and which to hold on to. They have been selling equities and buying long bonds. Foreigners sold another $26.9 billion in US stocks in August. This … Continued