A new high was established in S&P 500 buybacks in 1Q. Unlike most of the time in the past, shares were bought at lower prices as the S&P 500 sold off during the quarter. In the four quarters to March, … Continued
With a couple of tough weeks, both large- and small-caps last week suffered a slight breach of support, but not decisively just yet. Concurrently, VIX is flashing signs of fatigue. For equity bulls, if there is going to be a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 14, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 205.5k, down 60.7k. The Federal Reserve this week raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5 percent to … Continued
On a Fed decision day, both large- and small-caps find themselves at crucial technical juncture. They have both taken a real hit the past five sessions. In the wake of last Friday’s inflation report, markets now expect a 75-basis-point hike … Continued
Most valuation metrics in US equities are stretched. This at a time when the Fed is tightening. Depending on how inflation behaves in the months and quarters ahead and how monetary policy evolves, unwinding of overbought conditions can cause pain. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 7, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 266.2k, up 27.3k. Next week is FOMC meeting. This is the year’s fourth scheduled meeting; four more remain. Leading up to this, the Fed … Continued
Things are slowing down. From job creation to real GDP, there are signs of deceleration. CEOs are beginning to sound pessimistic. Often, this can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Amidst this comes the sell-side’s overly optimistic estimates for small-cap operating … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 31, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 238.9k, up 13.8k. Bond bears (on price) defended the 50-day moving average on the 10-year treasury rate. It tagged 3.17 percent on May 9 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 24, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 225.1k, up 65k. May has one session to go before the month is over. The 10-year treasury yield is on course for a potentially … Continued
US stocks continued their downward trend last week. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq suffered their seventh consecutive weekly drops. Amidst this also came flashes of hope. The Russell 2000, a risk-on barometer, failed to make a lower low … Continued