Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 93.1k, down 58.4k. This data is a little outdated, but foreigners were big sellers of Treasury securities in March. On a net basis, they … Continued
Margin debt rose in April. US stocks had a very good April. Yet, investors do not seem to be in a mood to aggressively add to leverage – the same way they are leaning more toward large-caps than small-caps. FINRA … Continued
Range-bound action continues on major US equity indices. After defense of support last Thursday, they gapped up Mon to rally right into resistance. No breakout yet. This is taking place in the wake of massive rallies off of the March … Continued
Last week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 respectively fell 2.3 percent, 0.7 percent and 5.5 percent. Bulls’ consolation is that the indices were down a lot more at Thursday’s lows and that they were able to defend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 12, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 151.5k, up 9.2k. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, provided a gloomy view of the economy, saying the nation was experiencing an economic hit … Continued
Two weeks after breaking out of 1250s, the Russell 2000 (1233) is back below it. IWM shorts never bought into the breakout. They were probably driven more by the sharp deterioration in small-business profit trend. Longs will be on the … Continued
Since March lows, large-caps led, and tech led the large-caps. Short squeeze helped. Amidst signs of distribution in the Nasdaq 100 the past several sessions, relief likely awaits bruised shorts near term. Shorts have gotten squeezed – for the most … Continued
Stocks have diverged from sharp deterioration in fundamentals. At the lows, several indicators were at washout levels, resulting in the massive rally that followed. But at this point in time, they may be responding more to the Fed’s monetary backstop … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 5, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 142.3k, up 92.8k. On March 9th intraday, the 10-year Treasury yield made an all-time low of 0.4 percent. On February 6th, yields tagged 1.67 … Continued
By now, this is no news. Supply bottlenecks have surged in recent months. In the meantime, the Transports are struggling to match the performance of the S&P 500. If past is prelude, it is healthy when they move in tandem. … Continued