Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.6k, up 39.4k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting, out Wednesday, essentially repeated what the post-meeting statement and/or Chair Jerome Powell said in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 344.2k, up 27.3k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 50 basis … Continued
The S&P 500 has dropped three weeks in a row. Santa Claus rally did not materialize this year, but the bulls just might get lucky as the year begins to wind down. Equity bulls found it very difficult to bust … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 316.9k, down 59.5k. The Bank of Japan, which began to use its balance sheet as a policy tool much earlier than its peers in … Continued
The BoJ took everyone by surprise this week. Shocked markets have concluded that the central bank, which lagged its global peers in rate tightening, has no other alternative than to join them. In the futures market, non-commercials’ net shorts in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.4k, up 7.2k. “Don’t fight the Fed” is an oft-quoted phrase in financial markets. When post-2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve aggressively expanded its … Continued
This week is crucial. The FOMC meets, and an inflation report that could potentially impact monetary policy next year is on deck as well. Leading up to this, both large- and small-caps met with heavy selling pressure at crucial resistance. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 369.2k, up 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The day the two-day meeting begins, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report November’s consumer price … Continued
Most traders on Wall Street grew up in a low-interest-rate, low-inflation environment. It is hard for them to relate to why Volcker acted the way he did in the late-‘70s/early-‘80s. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen operated at a time when inflation … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.8k, down 24.5k. Markets and the Federal Reserve are talking past each other. Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech was interpreted as dovish – probably … Continued