Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.8k, down 24.5k. Markets and the Federal Reserve are talking past each other. Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech was interpreted as dovish – probably … Continued
The S&P 500 has reached a crucial stage – kind of a make-or-break. Since peaking at 4819 in January this year, the large cap index has made two important lower highs – one in March and the other in August. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 321.3k, down 21.8k. Markets and FOMC hawks are on diverging paths. In the futures market, traders expect the fed funds rate to peak just … Continued
It is a seasonally strong period for stocks. Bulls are wasting no time getting ready for this. Stocks are rallying. In the best of circumstances, there is room to run still, with the caveat that an important inflation report is … Continued
Small-caps are lagging. With a large domestic exposure, these companies offer a reliable way to take a pulse of the economy. Rates have gone up a lot and will rise even more. A recession is imminent next year. Large-caps’ recent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 343k, up 60k. FOMC minutes for the November 1-2 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 75 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 283.1k, down 15.3k. FOMC hawks and doves are getting ready for a duel. Last Thursday, October’s CPI report showed headline and core consumer prices … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 298.3k, up 50.6k. It is beginning to look like FOMC members are no longer on the same page as they probably were until just … Continued
Equity bulls keep wishing for a pivot that keeps eluding. As things stand, bears are probably eyeing the June lows at a minimum. But at some point, the selling needs to be faded as the season turns favorable. No sooner … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 247.7k, down 65.7k. The FOMC meets this week. The November 1-2 meeting is the year’s seventh scheduled meeting. One more remains after this – … Continued