Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 174.1k, down 27.8k. Inflation has persisted much longer and broadened to more industries than the Fed initially – and stubbornly – expected. Benchmark interest … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield ended with a weekly shooting star last week, briefly rising above two percent. Only about two and a half months ago, rates were 1.34 percent. The 10-year may be ready to unwind at least some of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 201.9k, down 73k. The minutes for the January 25-26 meeting are scheduled for next Wednesday. This was the year’s first FOMC meeting, during which … Continued
In a matter of three weeks last month, the S&P 500 gave back 12.4 percent. A .618 golden ratio of that decline lies at 4591, which was tested on February 2 and again on Wednesday. The 50-day lies just above … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 274.9k, up 10.2k. Last Wednesday when the FOMC concluded its meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced there was “quite a bit of room” … Continued
January was ugly, with the S&P 500 down 5.3 percent. The January barometer is predicting a down year this year. But the track record of a down January is mixed; both 2020 and 2021 began the year with a down … Continued
VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. If history repeats itself, this probably means downward pressure on volatility, and higher stock prices. This is near term. Medium- to long-term, it will take time to heal the technical damage inflicted this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 264.7k, down 6.8k. Jerome Powell, Fed chairman, has a task at hand – to bring inflation, the likes of which has not been seen … Continued
Major US equity indices have a rough start to 2022. From their recent highs to Monday’s lows, they have all suffered double-digit percent declines, with small-caps tumbling more than 20 percent. Amidst this rout, both Monday and Tuesday produced potentially … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. Stocks are adjusting to an increasingly hawkish Fed, which is belatedly alarmed by the persistently rising inflation. At some point, the long end of the treasury yield curve is likely to cry uncle, putting earnings … Continued