Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 6, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 25.6k, down 34.4k. On Tuesday, slicing through low-1.40s, the 10-year (1.36 percent) broke not one, two but triple support – four-month descending channel, 11-month … Continued
The 2Q earnings season begins in earnest next week. Ahead of this, major equity indices are at or near their highs. The revision trend was positive throughout the quarter. Investors heavily bought into this. Their post-earnings reaction will be telling. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 29, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 60k, up 57.6k. FOMC minutes for the June 15-16 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The meeting was a surprise to the markets in … Continued
Major equity indices had a good week last week. Stocks are currently in the midst of many crosscurrents, not to mention inflation, aggressive monetary policy and several extended metrics. Even though they have broken out of, or are near, important … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 22, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 2.3k, up 36.6k. Doves have won – for now. In the wake of a slightly hawkish tilt in last week’s FOMC meeting in which … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 1, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 54.8k, down 49.6k. In all likelihood, a trial balloon was floated this week. On Wednesday, Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed president who becomes a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 4, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 7.2k, up 63k. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Tuesday that “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 55.8k, up 40.2k. As expected, nothing much of substance came out of the FOMC meeting this week. The fed funds rate was left untouched … Continued
After persistently remaining elevated for several weeks, investor sentiment is coming under pressure a little. Assuming institutions began distributing, retail would not be able to mop up all the supply. Record margin debt then becomes front and center. Equity bulls … Continued