Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
The Fed eased. This was expected. Chair Powell suggested it is not going to be a long rate-cutting campaign. This was unexpected. US equities took it on the chin Wednesday, and look vulnerable, particularly if bulls are unable to defend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.2k, up 32.9k. Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased, probably by 25 basis points to a range of 200 to 225 basis points. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued