Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity. Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from their respective highs. Daily momentum indicators are extended. Breakout retests are the path of least resistance. The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point cut to a range of 175 to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
The Fed eased. This was expected. Chair Powell suggested it is not going to be a long rate-cutting campaign. This was unexpected. US equities took it on the chin Wednesday, and look vulnerable, particularly if bulls are unable to defend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.2k, up 32.9k. Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased, probably by 25 basis points to a range of 200 to 225 basis points. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued