U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 26, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on what the consensus was expecting, U.S. economic data this week were split down the middle, with maybe a … Continued
2nd straight M/M rise in orders for U.S. business capX proxy in April For several months beginning June, hurdle rate quite high for Y/Y growth Six years into expansion, ZIRP probably not confidence booster among CEOs Phew! A sigh of … Continued
A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals. While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued
The U.S. factory report out yesterday has ignited a ray of hope. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (proxy for business capital expenditures) in particular were revised higher. March went from $68.19 billion to $68.71 billion, and February from $68.54 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The week was a head-scratcher from the standpoint of bond vigilantes’ reaction. The 10-year yield rallied hard on a very weak 1Q15 GDP … Continued
Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – continue to lose momentum. Year-over-year growth dipped in the negative territory for the first time since January 2014. One month does not a trend make, but there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator. Net shorts went up 67 … Continued
Semi rout after months of decline in orders for business capX proxy From INTC to TSM to SNDK, semi heavyweights pointing out biz slowdown SMH shorts stand no chance until longs are bothered by worsening earnings scene It is not … Continued
Subdued corporate capX now will adversely impact productivity later First time in 6 years, U.S. non-financials corporate capX exceeds internal funds Given new energy dynamics and impact on capX, too early to back-slap and high-five? U.S. corporations have not been … Continued