Third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest this week. Operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have been persistently coming down for 2015 – from as high as $137.52 at the end of the second quarter last year to $110.98 as … Continued
By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1). Turns out it was the right thing to do. By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued
Do non-commercials have it right? Their net shorts in Russell 2000 futures peaked at 46,064 contracts on August 18, a week before stocks, including small-caps, bottomed. Since then, they have gradually been reducing their bearish bias, with holdings at -27,708 … Continued
Volatility has been the name of the game in stocks in the past month. Between the August 18th intra-day high of $209.59 and the August 24th intra-day low of $181.46, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost north of 13 … Continued
Within a month, RVX, the Russell 2000 Volatility Index, has gone from 17.34 to 46.66 to now back down to 23.70. Volatility has been very volatile. Going back to early 2013, RVX has found support at 14, consistently rising off … Continued
Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
Gold is anything but golden these days. It has lost its luster. Not the metal, of course; it still glitters. As an asset, however, it is down in the dumps. Since its peak in September 2011 through the low this … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued
Later this morning, August’s NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) optimism index is published. July was 95.4, up 1.3 points month-over-month. The index has been under pressure since the recovery high of 100.4 reached last December. The last time it … Continued
Gold continues to act as if it expects a hike as soon as this month. The FOMC meets on the 16th-17th. On Friday, post-August jobs report, GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF, shed 0.3 percent. The two-year Treasury yield was unchanged … Continued