Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 4, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 7.2k, up 63k. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Tuesday that “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make … Continued
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pretty much implied on Tuesday that the Fed is behind the curve, although she tried to walk back her comments later. The economy may be “overheating”, but the Fed is not ready to dial back its … Continued
Last week’s excellent earnings results from five of the top six US companies were unable to lift equities, which had rallied big into the reporting season. With major equity indices extended on several timeframes, weakness could be brewing. The Nasdaq … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 55.8k, up 40.2k. As expected, nothing much of substance came out of the FOMC meeting this week. The fed funds rate was left untouched … Continued
One year ago this month, amidst all the gloom and doom, small-caps bottomed. Now, amidst high optimism for GDP and earnings growth, sellers are itching to cash in on their massive gains. After a massive one-year rally, small-caps look ripe … Continued
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued
Last week, Fed officials threw cold water on incipient taper talk, making it clear they would continue to purchase treasury securities. This followed a backup this month in rates in the long end of the treasury yield curve, with the … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. The Fed already has unlimited QE in place. Not much is expected to come out of this meeting. If anything, aware that low rates are needed, Mr. Powell may drop a hint or two that … Continued
Easy money is here to stay. That was pretty much the message Chair Powell delivered this week. The US economy is up to the gills in leverage. A sustained rise in interest rates will hurt. The Fed will try to … Continued
Gold just broke out of a massive base, suggesting much higher prices in the future. At the same time, its current pace of gains has a parabolic touch to it. A pullback to successfully retest the breakout will greatly strengthen … Continued