Reversing weeks of downward pressure, major US stock indices had a big week last week. There is room to run, if nothing else just to unwind the oversold condition they are in. With one session to go, May is setting … Continued
US stocks have come under immense downward pressure of late. Amidst this came signs late last week that a relief was overdue. Several indicators are languishing in oversold territory, an unwinding of which could unleash upward pressure for stocks. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.8k, down 214.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s third, and five more remain after this. In the March meeting, … Continued
An oversold reflex rally is due in major US indices. This week, major tech outfits report their March quarter. This could act as a catalyst. If post-earnings reaction instead acts as a headwind, the FOMC meets on May 3-4. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 332.3k, up 32.4k. A 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate is pretty much sealed in the May 3-4 meeting. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve … Continued
Two important data points came out last week and both are acting as headwinds. Margin debt and foreigners’ buying behavior are likely to continue to maintain the current trajectory medium- to long-term. Near-term, technical indicators are oversold, with the S&P … Continued
The 1Q earnings season begins in earnest this week, with a host of financials getting the ball rolling. For large-caps, this year’s revision trend is flat to slightly up, but next year’s is decidedly up, which is kind of interesting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 5, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.9k, down 113.7k. Minutes for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting, out Wednesday, revealed that the Federal Reserve plans to shrink its balance sheet by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 476.6k, up 212.7k. FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting are scheduled for Wednesday. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds … Continued
After strong rallies the past couple of weeks, major US equity indices have reached crucial levels, particularly the S&P 500, even as the Russell 2000 fails at a breakdown backtest and VIX sits at the 200-day. The S&P 500 (4543) … Continued